BURMA AND ASIAN SECURITY

Burma occupies an important strategic crossroads of southern Asia, the natural connection between the Indian subcontinent and East Asia. Its history has been shaped by the uneasy relationship between its two largest neighbors, China and India. Even today, Burma's international relations and domestic politics are influenced by these giants. Yet Burma is increasingly affected by the desire of Southeast Asian and other nations to maintain a stable peace in the region, free of great power interference.

The inherent long-term political instability of any military dictatorship raises concerns that Burma's military junta, the State Peace and Development Council (until November 1997, the State Law and Order Restoration Council, or SLORC), will continue as a source of tension and conflict in the region. Tens of thousands of refugees continue their flight from military repression to neighboring countries. Heroin production in Burma has nearly quadrupled since the junta took power, and cheaper and purer heroin supplies are creating new generations of addicts in Asia, Europe, and America. Massive trafficking of illicit methamphetamines is a major irritant with neighboring Thailand. The military regime has created or deepened these problems through its inability, incompetence, or unwillingness to resolve them.

Another important concern is the strong Chinese influence over Burma's ruling generals. Since the military seized direct power in 1988, it has more than doubled the size of Burma's armed forces to over 400,000 troops. Large quantities of weapons, ranging from small arms to jet fighters, have been imported from China to expand and modernize Burma's military. The exact value of the arms shipments-some estimates exceed $2 billion-is difficult to determine, especially since some Chinese weaponry has reportedly been bought at "friendship prices," or acquired in barter deals. It is also suggested that the cash-strapped junta's arms purchases may have been financed by proceeds from heroin sales.

Since World War II, when the then-British colony was a battleground between Japanese invaders and Allied forces, Burma has faced no credible external threat, and the massive influx of new weaponry is unnecessary to deter foreign enemies. The military build-up is to control Burma's peoples, and Burma's well-armed soldiers are today occupiers in their own land.

Another consequence of this military expansion is that already limited financial resources are diverted from crucial areas such as health and education. As documented by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the junta's military "expenditure is high (about 30 per cent), in particular in comparison with expenditure on education and health, which were allocated 10 and 2.5 per cent, respectively, for FY 1998/99." By spending over 200% more on its military than on health and education combined, Burma's junta has left the country with a critically ill-equipped social services infrastructure.

Burma's expanding military and its growing reliance on China are having unsettling international effects as well. Repeated border incursions from Burma, including fierce battles in February 2001, have raised fears in Thailand that Burma's increasing military power will make its ruling junta more belligerent. And across the region, there is worry that China's People's Liberation Army is gaining access to intelligence gathering and naval port facilities on the Bay of Bengal as part of a greater drive to expand Chinese political and military influence throughout southern Asia and the Indian Ocean. Burma is now seen as an important bridgehead in that effort. The desire to wean Burma from Chinese influence was an important consideration in the decision by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to admit Burma to the organization in July 1997. It is also a crucial factor in a major improvement in relations between India and Burma since 1999. The two countries are now cooperating militarily to suppress guerilla activity along both sides of their common frontier and are seeking to increase commercial ties.

Burma under dictatorship is an uncertain and unpredictable player in Asia's regional security equation. The regime depends on a pervasive and costly military intelligence apparatus (aided by China, Singapore, and Israel) to suppress domestic dissent. And the junta must rely on China for weapons to contain resistance to military rule, spurring a regional arms race that diverts resources desperately needed for human development. Moreover, without the long-term stability that only a democratically-elected government can bring, problems such as the suffering of refugees and the global distress caused by burgeoning heroin production will continue.